Trump

Trump Immune To #metoo

~ Mr. Rantastic ~ Leave a comment

It remains to be seen how much influence #metoo will have. It’s one thing to bring down a few heavy hitters, like Harvey Weinstein. But if hundreds of influential people are tarred with the #metoo brush then the effect will be diluted to just another bad character trait, and harassers will be tolerated just like jackass are.

One thing we already know for sure though. Donald Trump is immune from #metoo. He was probably never very vulnerable to it, but when he boasted about be able to “Grab (women he did not know) by the p—y” to Billy Bush and got elected anyway he effectively vaccinated himself against any further charges of sexual harassment.

If #metoo brings down politicians, don’t look for Trump to defend them though. He is smart enough to realize that doing so won’t reflect well on him. And if it brings down Republicans that aren’t devoutly loyal to him, even better.

Fake News Wins

~ Mr. Rantastic ~ Leave a comment

Donald Trump has won the battle of fake news. The battle wasn’t to get the media to publish ‘truthful’ news. The battle was to give Trump’s supporters a justification for ignoring any news Trump doesn’t like, truthful or not.

Recent polls show that 85% of Trump’s supporters believe that the media is rife with fake news when it comes to Trump. In fact, 45% of the general population believes the same. Trump has effectively armored himself against anything the mainstream media can throw at him.

The battle is over.

Now Trump Owns Kelly

~ Mr. Rantastic ~ 1 Comment

John Kelly probably thought that he was operating by the old rules. There are just things that one did not do. Lines one does not cross.

Yet, after working as Donald Trump’s chief of staff for two and half months why didn’t he realize that Trump doesn’t have any lines? When Trump is attacked, he fights back with whatever he can, even if it means fighting dirty. In fact, Trump’s base is tired of Washington’s version of the the Marquess of Queensberry rules. They want him to fight to win, and they don’t care how.

So Trump had no compulsions about dragging Kelly’s dead Marine son into a Twitter battle that he was having with a Gold Star family and their congresswoman. What is surprising is that Kelly allowed himself to be goaded into defending Trump publicly, even spouting ‘facts’ that turned out to be false.

Kelly, a Gold Star father, publicly lied to defend his boss’ public lies about his conversation with a Gold Star mother.

Kelly’s wife is probably furious with him for not telling off Trump after he brought their son’s death into national politics and for then allowing his integrity, and by extension their family’s, to be publicly compromised.

But what can Kelly do? He likely believes, as Bob Corker pointed out, that he is one of the few people keeping Trump from starting World War Three.  His sense of duty to the country won’t let him quit.

Once a bully finds out he can roll over you, he will keep doing it. Trump rolled over Kelly and got away with it. And now he owns Kelly.

PR Good PR For Trump

~ Mr. Rantastic ~ Leave a comment

Donald Trump engages in a Twitter battle with the mayor of San Juan Puerto Rico and scolds the island over its finances and behavior. The press, as usual is aghast. The President, as usual, is getting great PR where it counts – with his base.

Trump is treating the Puerto Ricans like little kids that don’t know how to take care of themselves or what is good for themselves. This resonates with the base, who see Puerto Rico as a proxy for Hispanics in general, especially the illegal sort. Calling them out as irresponsible is red meat for the base.

Trump actually has a point here. The Puerto Rican government has not managed its finances well over the past decade as economy slowed down, incentives to invest there were phased out and the population and tax base decreased. They over-borrowed, can’t pay their loans back and need a bailout. Calling them out for sucking on the federal government’s teat is more red meat for the base.

Meanwhile the liberals are making a lot of noise about Trump picking on the helpless, hurricane-ravaged, minority Puerto Ricans. The base just loves this, because the liberals are acting emotionally and the base knows that Trump is right. FEMA cannot stay in Puerto Rico forever and something will have to be done about the massive Puerto Rican debt. The base loves calling out the liberals for knee jerk anti Trump reactions.

 

Trump’s Wins Hide Losses

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Despite all of the issues and drama around the presidency of Donald Trump, he has managed to retain approval ratings of 35-40%. That is not stellar, but considering the turmoil surrounding his administration and his lack of success achieving his legislative agenda, it is amazing it remains so steady.

Trump knows that criticism from the media or the Republican establishment (never mind the Democrats) only strengthens support among his core. He also knows that there are a few things that are sure to turn his core against him. The big kahuna is becoming a loser.

That is why Trump fights so hard on every issue. He needs to ‘win’ every Twitter exchange, every exchange with Congress, every argument. Any time he backs down or compromises he risks becoming a loser. And his base won’t support a loser.

This is not new. The Democrats were desperate for Barak Obama to show up the obstructionist Republicans in Congress when he came into office. Their hearts wanted him to fight hard, but their heads saw the tactics as unseemly (never mind that Obama was not a street fighter). Trump’s supporters have no such reservations, in fact they prefer unseemly and so does he.

Losing on healthcare reform (3 times) didn’t look good for Trump. So did losing on the Alabama senate primary. Trump’s Secretary of State calling his boss a ‘fucking moron’ and getting away with it was another notch in Trump’s loser belt.

We’ll see what happens to tax reform, but that is really not a burning sands issue for his base. Immigrants and the Mexican wall are. And Trump compromised the border wall away in his negotiations with ‘Chuck and Nancy’. The base sees that at a loser move.

Trump finds it easy to rack up wins in the culture wars, so he keeps going after them hoping they will distract the base from his losses. So far it is working. But if Breitbart ever uses a “Losing” headline on an article about Trump, watch out.

 

Trump Tweets – Media SQUIRREL!

~ Mr. Rantastic ~ Leave a comment

Donald Trump continues his mastery over the media. Whenever he gets in a bad spot he ‘squirrels’ the media and sends them chasing after a sensationalist but squirrelrelatively meaningless story to get himself out of trouble.

Obamacare repeal fails (again)? No problem – toss out a tweet on NFL players disrespecting the flag and the military. Oh look, everyone is following that story now.

Federal help to hurricane-ravaged Puerto Rico is late, inept and inadequate? Pick a Twitter fight with a local politician so the press will chase that story instead.

It is simply amazing that almost a year after the election the political media has not figured out how to report on Trump’s tweets without being manipulated by them. Trump brought profound changes American politics – it remains to be seen whether the media will be able to adapt. So far, it does not look good.

 

Trump vs. Flake

~ Mr. Rantastic ~ Leave a comment

Donald Trump has a lot riding on Arizona Senator Jeff Flake. Trump’s M.O. is classic bully: threaten someone mercilessly with the expectation that they will kowtow to you because you are stronger. Trump’s message to Flake is, “I can take your senate seat away by supporting your opponent so you’d better get in line.”

If Flake wins his primary battle a year from now (August 2018) then Trump’s threats will be shown to be empty. This could be right around the time that the Senate is considering impeachment charges against Trump, assuming the House actually proffers them. Even if not, senate committees could be uncovering a whole lot of unflattering information about the Donald, his business and his political alliances with the Russians, Arabs and others.

Not a good time to have Flake win the primary and show that your threats are harmless.

The Wrong Leaks

~ Mr. Rantastic ~ Leave a comment

Jeff Sessions just announced that he will redouble retriple his efforts to stop government leaks after pressure public humiliation by Donald Trump. That may probably won’t have an effect on the flow of harmful information about the Trump administration to the media, but that’s beside the point.

The leaks that the media should be really going after are ones about Trump’s business. For all of the media’s investigative prowess, no one has been able to create a score card detailing how much Trump is profiting from his presidency.

Sure, there have been articles exposing conflicts of interest. However, the detailed financial statements are missing. One would think that Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the Economist, etc. would be able to put these together. They have the skills, but they are missing the data.

What they need are leakers. They know how to get people in government to talk – let’s see if they are any good at cultivating business people.

The fact that Trump is making millions or more off the presidency probably won’t bother his core supporters. But it could make a bunch of congressmen jealous and even more resentful of him.

Trump And The KKK

~ Mr. Rantastic ~ Leave a comment

For some strange reason, people keep expecting Donald Trump to turn on his base. Trump has no support from the press, has alienated mainstream Republicans by firing Reince Priebus and has insulted the Republican leaders of Congress. He has even flamed members of his own cabinet. The only meaningful support that Trump has left is his base.

Why would he ever do anything to upset these supporters? They are primarily white, so Trump will never rush to condemn ‘white rights’ advocates. They are primary middle class and traditionally valued, so Trump will never go our of his way to support gay rights, immigration, etc. Whether or not Trump agrees with them, it just smart politics not to piss off your supporters.

The exception is when the condemnation of Trump gets so intense that he has to do something, like the situation with the white supremacist murder-by-car recently. Trump finally issued a condemnation, but his supporters know that he did it only under extreme pressure and as part of playing the game.

It kind of makes one nostalgic for George W. Bush. At least he had principles. Trump will embrace whatever keeps him in power, even if it is the KKK.

Trump Won’t Be Impeached

~ Mr. Rantastic ~ Leave a comment

As the Special Counsel’s investigation heats up and Donald Trump’s relationship with Congress continues to cool down, some are speculating about impeachment.

In the history of the United States, only two presidents have been impeached, i.e., charged by the House Of Representatives with serious offenses. Both presidents went to trial in the Senate, and both won their trials when the Senate declined to convict either of them of the crimes the House charged them with.

The presidents were Andrew Jackson, nicknamed “Old Hickory” for his fortitude, and Bill “Big Dog” Clinton. There is no way that Donald Trump is going to let himself be bested by either of these presidents by getting convicted. Especially Clinton.

Trump’s pattern in legal matters is fight, fight, fight, settle. It is more likely that Trump will follow Richard Nixon’s path and resign before it gets to impeachment, although there is a chance there resignation will happen after the House votes to impeach.

Assuming the potential charges against Trump include conflicts of interest, bribery or worse related to the financing of his businesses, the resignation will probably be part of a ‘settlement’ deal that lets Trump and his family stay out of jail and keep most of their assets.

The threat of impeachment may work, but it is unlikely that it will actually happen.