Trump Expects To Lose

The surest sign that Donald Trump thinks he will lose the election in November is his tweet about delaying it. Putting the idea out about postponing the election until after the covid crisis is over is an act of desperation. But Trump must see the momentum running against him, so desperate times call for desperate measures.

There are two problems with this.

  • If Trump starts rising in the polls (which he will because the race with inevitably tighten) he will conclude that desperate measures work, and he will try more of them.
  • If Trump’s polling numbers don’t improve he will conclude that his measures need to be even more desperate. Like encouraging civil unrest. Or worse.

Trump is a fighter. A cornered, desperate fighter can be very dangerous.

GOP ❤ Trump. Why?

One thing that is consistent in poll after poll: Donald Trump’s support among Republicans rarely drifts below 90%. The media reports this religiously. However, the media never reports on why.

Trump’s lowest approval rating from Republicans was about six months into his presidency, when it hit the high 70s several times. But that was it. Ever since he has been at at least 85%, usually above 90%.

The media talks about Trump playing to his base. But it appears that Trump’s ‘base’ is nearly every Republican. There are a few anti-Trump Republicans who are getting a lot of press, but they are clearly a very small minority.

Instead of focusing on them, it would be better if the media analyzed Trump’s support. It seems like the more Trump is attacked, the higher his ratings among Republicans. His opponents cannot understand how he can, in their view, mismanage things so badly and yet increase his support.

The media failed hugely in understanding and reporting on Trump’s support 4 years ago. It looks like it is on track to repeat the same mistake this year. No wonder they have a bad rap.

The Trump Test: Biden Bite Back #108

Donald Trump has been calling out Joe Biden on his mental abilities lately. In a recent Fox News interview, Trump boasted about his scores on a cognitive test and challenged Biden to take the same test. Biden should turn the challenge around.

Biden should prepare a list of 100 questions that the President should know. The questions should not be tricky or hard. Examples are the names of leaders of important countries. Whether certain countries are in NATO or other alliances. Names of cabinet members and what their departments are responsible for. Questions about the US constitution. All questions that Biden and any other politician in Washington should know the answers to off-hand.

Biden should then send the questions to the news media. He should invite them to pick 3-5 random questions from the list to ask Trump the next time he has a news conference. See how many he gets right.

Most likely, when asked a question from the list, Trump will just try to change the subject.

 

“He Doesn’t Care About You”: Biden Bite Back #107

Donald Trump does not wear masks. This should be an easy shot for Joe Biden, but he can’t seem to take it. “Masks are meant to protect others in case you are sick but don’t know it. They show you care about people and want to keep them healthy. Trump’s unmasked face shows that he doesn’t care about about anyone.”

(NOTE: Trump wore a mask in public for the first time the other day when he visited a military hospital. Maybe it was because the doctors told him they would not let him in without a mask. Maybe it was because he was afraid of catching something. Maybe both. But he wasn’t happy about it.)

Stone: Trump’s Supreme F-U

It should come as no surprise that Donald Trump pardoned his political advisor Roger Stone yesterday. Trump is a fighter. When someone hits him, he hits back harder.

The day before the Stone pardon, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump was not above the law. So Trump hit back with, “I don’t care about the law. I’m pardoning a convicted felon because he’s on my team and I don’t think the law gave him a fair shake.”

Besides, Trump needs Stone’s political expertise right now. He is in the middle of a challenging election and Stone is a very accomplished political fighter. His approach of “admit nothing, deny everything, launch counterattack” is perfectly aligned with Trump’s.

Take that, Supremes.

 

 

Biden Bite Back #105

Donald Trump loves rallies. They get his juices going. Nothing, including Covid-19, will keep him from scheduling more of them. Joe Biden can take advantage of this.

He should send a truck to wherever Trump holds a political gathering. It show up the morning after, or maybe two mornings after. It will be staffed with health professionals and offer free Covid-19 testing for anyone that went to Trump’s rally.

Even if no one shows up for the test, he will be making an effective point. It is the kind of thing Trump would have done if the tables were turned.

Police Arrest Unions

Unions in the United States have been losing ground for years. Recently, things have been looking a bit brighter due to union interest from millennials in the gig economy. Unfortunately, the cops could arrest that forward movement.

The police are one of the most heavily unionized sectors of the labor force. Their unions are powerful and fight to protect their members, including bad cops. The public, and especially millennials, never had much tolerance for bad cops. As it becomes apparent how many bad cops are still on the job because of their unions, the backlash is not going to be pretty.

The problem is not limited to to the police. Unions are strong in government workers, and every government worker can tell you about colleagues that should be fired but cannot be because of their union.

There is a lot of good unions can do in terms of working conditions, fair wages, health benefits, etc. But that is not what makes it into the news. Unless unions can figure out how to be on the ‘good’ side of getting rid of bad actors, their progress will be arrested and they will continue to decline.