Trump Owes The Clintons – Big Time

At this point, does anyone really think that Donald Trump didn’t sleep with Stormy Daniels? Or the former Playboy model? Or the Russian prostitutes? Or the ____________? Of course not.

The real question is whether it makes any difference. The answer is an emphatic NO! And the main reason it doesn’t make any difference is that Bill and Hillary Clinton made it OK for a president to have an affair. Trump owes both of them a huge “thank you”.

When Bill Clinton was outed for fooling around with Monica Lewinsky the left was disappointed, not appalled. Sure, Bill was a horndog, but how could he be so stupid as to have an affair with an intern in his workplace instead of someone more innocuous? Why couldn’t he have done it with the reporter who said she was so happy with his politics she’d give him oral sex?

Hillary made it worse. She didn’t leave him or kick him out – instead she publicly forgave him. So why should Trump be any different, his supporters say? Sure, he shouldn’t cheat on his wife, but that’s between him and her. Even the religious right is giving Trump a bye on this because they like his politics (although so far not enough to offer him oral sex).

Bill did get impeached, but that was for lying about the affair, not having it. Trump lied too, but he won’t get impeached because Clinton demonstrated that trying to convict the President for lying about an affair doesn’t work. If Trump does get impeached – which is unlikely – it will be for laundering Russian money, not an unlaundered dress.

Trump Sucks Comey’s Oxygen

If you were wondering why Donald Trump went manic on twitter over the past weekend it wasn’t because he was trying to convince everyone that James Comey was a liar. It was simply to suck the oxygen out of the Comey news. As usual, the press went for it.

Comey’s interview on ABC aired Sunday night. The stories in the mainstream press the next morning were a win for Trump. Yes, they reported that Comey felt Trump was “morally unfit” to be president and a serial liar. But the stories largely only devoted 1/3 of their ink to Comey and what he had to say.

The other two thirds of the stories focused on what Trump said in his tweets. The press seems to be under some compulsion to repeat almost all of them word for word.

Trump knows that, so whenever something is in the news that he doesn’t like, he tweets to either change the subject or suck up all of the news with his viewpoint.

The unbelievable thing is that it continues to work. The press feels it needs the “can you believe he said that?” factor that Trump’s tweets provide to get readers.

Here’s a suggestion, men and women of the press. If you really need to print all of the Trump’s tweets, put them at the bottom of your story, like an appendix. For example,

“James Comey appeared on 60 Minutes last night and asserted that Donald Trump was ‘morally unfit’ to be president and ‘lies constantly’.” In a series of tweets before and after the interview Donald Trump in turn called Comey a liar and disparaged his character.”

That’s it. Don’t quote Trump’s tweets until the end of the story, and at that point, just print them out one after another. Leave some oxygen for the rest of the story.

 

Putin’s Goods On Trump

Every couple of weeks speculation surfaces that Vladimir Putin has the goods on Donald Trump and is somehow blackmailing him. The same speculators go on to wonder what it is that Putin has.

It is not women. Trump may well have slept with women in Russia while married, but no one really cares. His supporters accept that he is a philanderer. After all, here is a guy who boasted about the size of his penis in a presidential debate. Of course he is going to use it any chance he gets.

Steve Bannon was right. What Putin has over Trump is money laundering. Specifically, Russian money. It will probably come out that either Trump’s business or his son-in-law Jared Kushner’s business depended on laundered Russia money, breaking all sorts of laws.

Unfortunately for Putin, using this blackmail evidence carries some costs. He can’t just say that Trump was money laundering. He has to do it indirectly, which will probably mean sacrificing one of his oligarch allies and charging them with Russian crimes that would then highlight the money trail and expose Trump’s laundering.

In addition Putin’s leverage may decline over time. Special counsel Robert Mueller will likely put it all together on his own and charge Trump’s and/or Kushner’s organizations with money laundering. Of course, Putin retains some leverage in that he could still be able to supply some details that make Mueller’s case airtight.

Any way you look at it, in all probability Trump’s son or his son-in-law is going to need a presidential pardon.

Trump, Snap, Twitter

If Donald Trump ever snaps, and that is a very big if, it will likely be on Twitter. Trump will send a series of rambling tweets late at night or or early morning.

  • HE WILL LIBERALLY USE CAPITAL LETTERS.
  • There will be exclamation points!!
  • He will blast FAKE NEWS while promoting some of his own
  • His innocence will be asserted
  • Blame will be placed on Hillary and/or Obama
  • He will claim that the law is unfair or misunderstood
  • His supporters will be mobilized mentally and physically

Barely coherent, his Twitter rant will do little to help his cause and instead do it significant harm. Trump may backtrack a bit once his advisors get to him later that day. But his supporters will get the message. When it is time to take to the streets, they will be there.

 

 

Sessions Comes In From The Cold

Jeff Sessions is finally redeeming himself. It only took a year of prodding and insults from boss Donald Trump to get Jeff Sessions mobilized.

First he headed all the way out to California to pick a fight over immigration with the “sanctuary state”. Any fight with California is ridiculously easy to start and such red meat for Trump supporters that it boggles the mind that Sessions waited so long to start one.

Once he finally did, the results were worth it. He put the focus on California which was a perfect set up for Trump’s trip out there the following week. They protesters were all charged up and Trump got exactly the press and messaging he was looking for. Great teamwork.

But Sessions was not done. Friday he fired the FBI’s Andrew McCabe for Trump. If one follows the rule that the the more Trump tweets about a subject the more threatened he feels, then Trump is feeling extremely threatened by Robert Mueller’s investigation. He may not be able to get rid of Mueller, but discrediting every one of Mueller’s witness could be good enough, and Sessions just gave him a big hand in doing so.

One had to wonder what is going through Sessions’ mind. On the one had, he probably figures that if he does not become a more forceful Trump supporter he will be on the way out, like Rex Tillerson. On the other hand, as Attorney General he is the key point person in the Administration on defending the Constitution and representing the law enforcement community, which is probably why he took the job in the first place.

Sessions was able to avoid tough decisions at first by recusing himself and keeping a low profile. Understandably, it pissed Trump the loyalty addict off that Sessions wasn’t going out whole hog for him. Sessions had to make a choice – help Trump discredit the FBI and possibly end run the Constitution or be fired. He made his choice and Trump added another pawn to his collection.

 

The Next Surgeon General’s Warning

Back in the 1990’s Microsoft was the Wicked Witch of the tech world. The techies were upset that the company made substandard software and then forced everyone to use it. For example, Internet Explorer was not as good as Netscape Navigator, but because Microsoft had tremendous clout in the market it could cut business deals that made it hard for consumers to use anything else and muscled Netscape out of business.

The government finally got involved went after Microsoft and got very close to breaking the company up, just like it did with Ma Bell in the early 1980s.

The current captains of tech learned their lesson. Google, Facebook and Twitter make pretty decent software. More importantly, they (mostly) don’t cut business deals that force you use it.

Instead, they work on your addictions. The employ behavioral physiologists and their techniques to get you hooked on their services. The smartphone and ubiquitous internet was a godsend to these companies, because you can feed your addiction to these services anywhere, not just at your desk – in your car, walking down the street, in the toilet, .

What they did not learn from Microsoft’s experience is that anything that gets too big and indispensable will eventually generate backlash. First, politicians from the left railed against these companies for allowing themselves to be used by fake news to influence the election of Donald Trump. Next, politicians from the right are upset that these companies are over correcting.

When both sides of the political aisle have you in their sights, it cannot be good.

It is not clear what the politicians will come up with, but it is clear that the underlying problem is the addictive nature of these services. If people were not so compelled to use them, they wouldn’t be as much of an issue.

Maybe a Surgeon General’s Warning would help:
Social media and search are highly addictive. Quitting greatly reduces serious risks to your mental and political health.

Thank You, Russians

We really owe the Russians a big ‘thank you’ for all of their activities during the past election. Russians can do music and ballet delicately, but they are quite ham-fisted when it comes to politics. Which is good, because if they had been more subtle their efforts might have gone undetected.

Now that they have been exposed, the results are mostly positive:

  • Anti hacking security is being taken more seriously. Electoral authorities are tightening up their vote tallying systems. Campaigns are finally taking measures to protect their emails and communications
  • Fake news and the robots that spread it have been exposed. There still are not a lot of great options for fighting it, but there is a start
  • There is a massive spotlight on the the power of Facebook, Twitter and others that would not have been there had the Russians not tried to use them to manipulate public opinion
  • Russia’s actions prompted a very rare show of Congressional bipartisanship and independence. Legislation to punish Russia passed overwhelmingly, with specific language to keep Trump from end-running it.
  • A Special Counsel was appointed investigate the Russian activities. For the anti-Trump crowd this alone is a huge positive, as the investigation has spilled over to the shady financing that undermines Trump Inc.

Of course, all of this will be for naught if the lessons are quickly forgotten.

Trump The Business

Donald Trump wrote a book about his business acumen and even started a ‘university’ to teach it to others. But like most things Trump, the reality is not as good as he says it is.

I once spoke to a banker about the traders in his company that used computers to trade massive amounts of money and make a few cents on each trade. It was impressive. He replied, not so much. The traders were trading using the bank’s money for free. If they had to borrow the money at market rates instead they would be losing their shirts.

It is a good bet that Trump Inc. is built on a similar model. The economics of his business deals are probably based on getting financing from unsavory characters (alleged mobsters and worse), highly aggressive tax maneuvers and illegal undocumented quid-pro-quo agreements. Trump Inc. might not be a money launderer per se, but you won’t have to scratch the surface very deeply to find the rinse cycle.

This is why Trump is so afraid of Robert Mueller’s investigations. They are bound to uncover the extent of the shady deals he and his family have done to stay in business. And since he and his family make all of the important decisions, there really aren’t a lot of henchmen to take the fall when the truth comes out.

So in addition to the Charles Kushner pardon pool, we ought to be thinking about wagering on pardons for Donald Trump, Jr. and Jared Kushner.

 

Mueller: Drip, Drip, Drip

Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation must be like water torture for Donald Trump. Every piece of news about it is another brick in the wall that will eventually encircle the President and, more importantly, his business interests.

The wall won’t imprison Trump. It is doubtful that he will even be charged with any crimes. What the wall will do is keep others away. By the time Mueller is done, Trump Inc. will be a toxic hot potato that no one will want to be close to.

Trump is very well aware of this. So every time Mueller puts a fair sized brick in the wall, Trump tries to tweet it away. “No collusion” tweets Trump – he’s got nothing, it’s a waste of time. No Brick.

But the truth is that very slowly and very methodically, the wall is taking shape. Mueller is laying as strong of a foundation as he can to make sure that the wall will stand up to any legal trebuchet that Trump’s legal team can conceive of. So far, it looks pretty solid.

 

Trump: It’s The Ratings Stupid

In case you have not noticed, Donald Trump is not exactly a traditional president. That includes how he measures how well he is doing.

Trump is from the celebrity and reality TV worlds (pretty much the same thing, really). In those worlds, success is measured by how often you are mentioned in the press and the ratings your TV program receives. It really doesn’t matter whether people ‘like’ you, how high your public approval ratings are or even what the press is writing about you. If you are in the news every day, you are successful. Period.

That is why Trump cares about how many people come to events like his inauguration. If he has the largest attendance then he had the largest ratings, and he is the ‘best’ president. Period.

If a celebrity finds their press coverage lacking, they have their PR flack manufacture something to bring them some coverage. Trump is his own publicist and he is brilliant at it, having honed his skills in over 30 years of sparring with New York’s celebrity press.

When Trump feels his ratings going down, he sends out a few tweets. Boom – he is back in the headlines and back on top.

The celebrity  press understands this game, but the political press is still trying to figure it out. Trump has completely broken their reporting model and until they come up with a new one he will continue to be a star and write his own headlines.