Trump Expects To Lose

The surest sign that Donald Trump thinks he will lose the election in November is his tweet about delaying it. Putting the idea out about postponing the election until after the covid crisis is over is an act of desperation. But Trump must see the momentum running against him, so desperate times call for desperate measures.

There are two problems with this.

  • If Trump starts rising in the polls (which he will because the race with inevitably tighten) he will conclude that desperate measures work, and he will try more of them.
  • If Trump’s polling numbers don’t improve he will conclude that his measures need to be even more desperate. Like encouraging civil unrest. Or worse.

Trump is a fighter. A cornered, desperate fighter can be very dangerous.

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