Ever since he started campaigning for the presidency 4 years ago, Donald Trump has been able to count on the support of around 30-35% of the electorate. No matter what he did or was accused of, that support never wavered.
- Extramarital sex with a porn star – no problem.
- Senior members of his campaign team and his personal lawyer charged with illegal behavior – no problem
- His former Secretary of State calls him a moron – no problem
- He admits forcing himself on women and groping them – no problem.
- Pissing off allies and sucking up to arch enemy Russia – no problem.
As Trump himself put it, “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters.”
The truth is that Trump is right. His base is so fed up with national politics that they are willing to overlook almost everything in order to keep Trump in power, kicking the establishment in the ass.
The one thing that might affect this support is visible corruption. The operative word is ‘visible’. China giving his daughter valuable trademarks is corrupt, but it does not affect the average American so it is invisible. But if there were potential conflicts of interest between Trump’s business and the welfare of American workers and Trump was exposed as coming down on the side of his business, it could, just could, affect his support.
If the Democrats take control of the House or Senate, they might decide to hold hearings to shine light on Trump’s possible conflicts and subpoena his tax returns, which cannot be good for him. Or Robert Mueller might expose corruption that deeply offends the average voter. Or Michael Cohen will flip and tell tales of the shady things he has done for Trump.
Trump’s support will never go to zero, but corruption is probably the only thing that can shave 5-10 points off of it.