(Thanks DH)
Comey’s Call To Arms
James Comey’s testimony before the US Congress this week will not bring President Donald Trump down. There was a lot of circumstantial evidence, but no smoking gun.
In the long term though, Comey might prove to be very influential. He accused Trump of lying about him and, more importantly, the FBI. This was a call to arms to the FBI and the law enforcement community in general: “Don’t let Trump get away with trying to insult and manipulate us.”
The real danger to Trump is that the FBI will take this to heart and redouble its efforts to uncover the Russia connections to the Trump administration. And it may not stop there. Bill Clinton was being investigated for the Whitewater affair, but after finding nothing the special counsel then turned to whether he had sex with an intern. The House voted to impeach him for lying about that.
The special counsel investigating Trump is a former FBI director. If he and the FBI heed Comey’s call to arms, Trump could be in for a very rough ride.
Trump to Europe: You’re Fired!
There are some managers that come into a new job and believe that one of the first things they should do is fire someone. It gets people’s attention, puts them on their toes and shows them that it is not going to be business as usual.
Apparently, Donald Trump is one of those managers. A main topic at his first formal meeting with the Europeans was the Paris climate change agreement. They wanted the US to stay on track and worked hard to convince him to do so.
But to Trump, the issue was not about climate change but about letting the Europeans know that it will not be business as usual. And “firing” the climate change deal despite their pleas was a good way to do this.
In the short term, it won’t make much difference to climate change. Business is largely in favor of it and is going to act as if it were in effect for commercial reasons. Environmentally sympathetic state and local governments will do the same.
Meanwhile, Trump scores huge points with his base, sticking up for them against all of the usual suspects: the wishy washy UN, the socialist Europeans, the cheating Chinese, the elite liberals back home, etc. All without having to get Congress’ involved.
Starting his relationship with the Europeans by pissing them off may backfire on Trump. But not as much as pissing off his base by appeasing the Europeans and reversing his campaign promises on the Paris Accords. If impeachment talk ever becomes mainstream, he is going to want need his base solidly behind him.
Putin: We Did It, So What?
Vladimir Putin is taking the long view. Realizing that the investigations into Russian influence in the 2016 elections is likely to show that they were hacking, he admitted that this probably happened. Not by the government of course, but by patriotic individual Russians that felt their government was threatened. He did not say threatened by whom, but the answer is Hillary Clinton.
Putin also let us know told us that we should not expect him or his government to do anything about it. He likened the hackers to artists that wake up with an idea and act on it. And if any connection is ever made between these hackers and Donald Trump, that is their business, not the Russian government’s.
Meanwhile, when pressed Trump is going to say that the Russians did nothing wrong. And he will be right, just like he was right when he said it was smart to pay as little taxes as legally possible. He will point to Obama’s government, which did plenty of hacking, even of our allies, so why shouldn’t the Russians try to hack us? We certainly try to hack them. He will continue to claim that he was not involved, and if the hacking benefited his campaign, so what?
The reality is that the Democrats brought this on themselves. They were irresponsibly lax regarding their computer security. Hillary Clinton set the tone when she decided to use her personal email system instead of the State Department’s, despite repeated warnings.
Both Trump and Putin will claim that it is not their fault that the Democrats left themselves open to hacking, and they will be right.
They will also claim that it was not their fault that people took advantage of it for political reasons, and they would be right about that too.
They will further maintain that they had nothing to do with planning or supporting the hacking, but it remains to be seen whether they are right about that. Of course, even if proven wrong, they have both proven very adept at denying the truth and turning to ‘alternative facts’.
Microsoft’s Next Device
Microsoft recently introduced a version of Windows called Windows 10 S, with the S standing for streamlined and secure. Unlike the Windows we are all used to, it only runs apps that are available from the Microsoft store. Presumably, the security of these apps has been vetted by Microsoft and they also run very efficiently.
Microsoft tried launching a similar version of Windows that only ran apps from the store 5 years ago called Windows RT. It was a huge failure. So why do it again?
The tech press has focused on Windows 10 S as being Microsoft’s answer to Google’s operating system called Chrome, which runs on a number of inexpensive laptops targeted at students.
There is certainly truth to that. However, it is likely that Windows 10 S is the version of Windows that Microsoft sees running on mobile devices. Cellular connected mobile devices. For example, a phone.
Microsoft does have something called Windows 10 Mobile currently for phones, but it is not clear where that is going. There is very little development happening on it. Microsoft has stopped making phones and its partners have pretty much stopped as well.
My guess is that Windows 10 S will be the version of Windows that runs on the next “phone” that Microsoft comes out with. Phone in quotes, because they have already said that they will not make a traditional smart phone like the iPhone or Galaxy. Microsoft is all about productivity, and while the device might be able to do voice calls, it will likely be more about getting work done.
Right now, most folks carry a phone along with a laptop or tablet and keyboard to actually do their work on. With its Continuum feature, Microsoft tried to eliminate the laptop/tablet requirement but did not quite get there. But with a new mobile device running Windows 10 S and a keyboard, it just might make it.
Nope, Don’t Care. Pass The Bottle
(thanks JK)
It’s the Cover Up, Stupid
Anyone who follows politics knows that when it comes to scandals, it is not the transgression that gets you, it’s the cover up. Nevertheless, politicians continue to cover things up rather than just admit to them, face the music and try to move on.
There was some reasonable expectation that Donald Trump would be different. After all, he was the one that claimed he could shoot someone in Times Square and still maintain his support. But it was not to be, and a few days ago Trump succumbed. He fired the FBI director, apparently for digging too deeply into his Russian connections.
By taking this extreme step that was clearly politically motivated, Trump likely achieves a number of unwanted objectives.
- He makes enemies of a whole bunch of FBI personnel that can hurt him with their investigations and, more importantly, their leaks.
- He gives the press renewed incentive to pursue the story
- He gives his enemies in congress more ammo that he is undemocratic
- He encourages more leaking by other members of the executive branch that disagree with politicizing the FBI
Inevitably, Trump’s Russian connections will be exposed. They could be around manipulating the election, they could be around his business empire being financed by Putins’ billionaire friends, they could be around his hotels getting sweetheart deals in Russia. There is a good chance it will be all of the above.
Whatever the connections turn out to be, they will not be the impeachable offense. That will be his efforts to cover them up.
Is Trump Becoming Hillary?
Will Donald Trump become the president that Hillary Clinton would have been before Bernie Sanders pushed her to the left? After all, he does not seem to have any real ideology and has no problem reversing his positions. After the public embarrassment of another legislative defeat or two, maybe he will just declare himself party-independent and decide to do whatever it takes to make his presidency ‘successful’.
He has already offered to work with the Democrats on health care. He is looking at supporting Barak Obama’s Federal Reserve chair (Janet Yellen) and some of his economic policies. He is cozying up to China and taking actions that annoy Russia.
Sure, his appointees and executive orders have been nothing like what Clinton would have done. But it is early – Trump has not even been president for 100 days yet. Already Steve Bannon’s influence is being supplanted by a life long NY Democrat – Jared Kushner. There will undoubtedly be more changes to come.
At the end of the day, this president asks himself not what is good for the country, but what is good for the Trump brand. Interestingly, if he decides that political success is better for the brand than ideology, it might also be better for the country.
Dr. Jäger and Meister Hyde
(thanks JK)
Trump, Putin And The Syrian Quagmire
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have a number of similarities. Both are bullies. Both feel a need to demonstrate their virility. Both fancy themselves as very crafty deal makers.
There are also some differences. Putin has been successful in one of the most difficult and backstabbing political environments in the world for several decades. Trump is just getting his feet wet in the political arena. My money is on Putin letting Trump maneuver him into just the spot that Putin wants to be.
Which is out of Syria.
What does Russia really want out of its activity in Syria?
- Pressure on Islamic militants which are also threatening the Russia internally
- Access to a naval port on the Mediterranean (Tartus) an air base (Latakia)
- Syrian stability – meaning Turkey, the Kurds, Iran, Israel, Hezbollah and Saudi Arabia do not expand their influence into Syria in response to a power vacuum which could have a domino effect of destabilizing the status quo in the Middle East which Russia has learned to live with.
The US shares the first and third goals, and could probably live with some form of the second, especially since it is nothing new. Russia has had access to the Tartus naval base since 1971.
If Russia could withdraw from Syria and achieve its goals it would. The primary reason for supporting Assad is that without him, goals 2 and 3 are in jeopardy. But if Trump were to agree to some continued access to the naval and air bases, and they could agree on a political structure that included non-Assad Baathists and the non-Islamic opposition, why not jettison Assad?
Meanwhile, on the way to this deal both sides get some positives. Trump gets to demonstrate his virility by bombing Syria and standing up to Putin. But this also helps Putin, because one of Trump’s feet (the left one) is now a bit stuck in Syria which should bring him to the table faster.
At the end of the day, neither side really wants a long term engagement in Syria or anywhere else in the Middle East. Look for them both to get out as soon as they can cut a deal.
Rantastic 